Landscape Scenario Archetypes for Desertification-Prone Oases: A Resilience Framework for the Drâa Valley

Abstract

Oasis regions in southern Morocco face intensifying desertification, water scarcity, and socio economic pressures that erode long-term resilience. This paper examines how landscape scenario design can inform future-oriented strategies for the Drâa Valley. Integrating STEEP trend analysis, landscape assessment, and two rounds of participatory survey. The study identifies key drivers and community preferences and constructs four plausible socio ecological scenarios, Oasis Minimisation, Oasis Emancipation, Rural Abandonment, and Rural Refuge, translating each into spatial design principles for the Drâa Valley's desertification-prone oases. Its principal contribution is a landscape scenario building-block framework that establishes an operational link between identified drivers and spatial interventions, moving scenarios from narrative to implementable design. Findings indicate that combining traditional oasification practices with contemporary landscape strategies can strengthen ecological functioning, water management, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that landscape scenario archetypes offer an effective means of exploring alternative futures and informing decisions in desertification-prone regions.